[SMM Hot Topic: How Significant Is the Impact of South Korea's Anti-Dumping Measures on Chinese Hot-Rolled Steel Coils?]

[SMM Hot Topic: South Korea Launches Anti-Dumping Investigation on Chinese Hot-Rolled Steel Coils—How Significant Is the Impact?]

• Background
• February 28, 2025The Trade Commission of South Korea's Ministry of Trade, Industry, and Energy announced on February 28 that it has decided to initiate an anti-dumping investigation on hot-rolled carbon steel plates and hot-rolled alloy steel plates originating from China and Japan. The Trade Commission will publish the details in the official gazette on March 4 and conduct a three-month preliminary investigation, followed by a formal investigation lasting three to five months.

March 4, 2025

• On March 4, 2025, the South Korean government officially announced the launch of an anti-dumping investigation on hot-rolled steel coils (HRC) from China and Japan. The investigation was initiated upon the application of Hyundai Steel, which accused Chinese and Japanese HRC products of dumping practices that harm South Korea's domestic steel industry. According to the announcement by the Korea Trade Commission (KTC), the preliminary investigation is expected to be completed by the end of March, after which a substantive investigation phase will begin. The overall investigation period may be extended by two months. The investigation covers hot-rolled products of carbon steel or alloy steel, involving multiple HS codes (HSK 7208, 7211, 7225, 7226, etc.). The scope of the investigation excludes hot-rolled medium-thickness plates, coated or plated products, and stainless steel products.The products and data involved in South Korea's anti-dumping case against China are as follows: in 2024, the total export volume of the products involved to South Korea was 3.1307 million mt. Among them, the major product categories include other hot-rolled ordinary steel coils with thicknesses of 4.75mm ≤ thickness ≤ 10mm; other hot-rolled ordinary steel coils with thicknesses of 3mm ≤ thickness < 4.75mm; and other hot-rolled iron or non-alloy steel coils with thicknesses of 1.5mm ≤ thickness < 3mm.

Table 1 - Products Affected by South Korea's Anti-Dumping Investigation on Chinese HRC and Their 2024 Export Volumes to Vietnam (10,000 mt)

South Korea Is China's Second Largest Steel Export Destination, Accounting for 5.74% of China's HRC Exports

According to data from China's General Administration of Customs, in 2024, China's total steel exports to South Korea amounted to 7.759 million mt, accounting for 7% of China's total steel exports. South Korea is the second largest destination for China's steel exports after Vietnam.

Figure 1 - China's Steel Export Data (10,000 mt)

Source: SMM, China's General Administration of Customs

According to data from China's General Administration of Customs, in 2024, China's total HRC exports to South Korea amounted to 1.6079 million mt.

China's total HRC exports were 27.99 million mt,

accounting for 5.74% of China's total HRC exports.The total volume of HRC involved in this anti-dumping case is 1.5632 million mt, accounting for 97.22% of China's total HRC exports to South Korea, essentially covering all HRC products exported from China to South Korea. Figure 2 - China's Total HRC Exports and Proportion to South Korea

Source: SMM, China's General Administration of Customs

Risks Facing China's Steel Exports Are Increasing

In summary, the products involved in South Korea's anti-dumping case account for 5.74% of China's total HRC exports, a moderate proportion overall. However, in the past two years, China has faced an increasing number of anti-dumping cases in the steel sector. Notably, on February 21, 2025, Vietnam decided to impose provisional anti-dumping duties of 19.38% to 27.83% on China's HRC. As Vietnam is China's largest export destination for steel and HRC, this undoubtedly places significant pressure on China's steel exports. For detailed analysis, refer to SMM's report

• https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/9kX1YJ0QbZmbYql71NnDtQ

. Meanwhile, Indonesia also decided on December 31, 2024, to continue imposing anti-dumping duties of 0-20% on Chinese HRC. As of the end of February, the total export volume of steel products involved in anti-dumping cases and their corresponding countries exceeded 30 million mt in 2024. If these anti-dumping cases are fully implemented, the outlook for China's steel exports will become increasingly challenging.